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Nacey

Election Means Election Chat

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UK wide prediction:

  • Conservative majority rises
  • Labour lose seats. Not complete collapse as they have enough "safe" ones but who knows.
  • Lib Dems gain (yay!)
  • UKIP flounder around
  • Not sure what the Scottish position will be. Suspecting little change.

 

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I suspect Scotland wise, the SNP lose a few seats but still do really well, I can see a few border constituencies going blue.

Some of their MPs have been awful since their election, and the 2015 result was unrealistically huge.

Otherwise I suspect Sharp is probably along the right lines.

 

Here we go:

 

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I'd like to see LD gain enough seats from Tory remainers that they lose the majority in Parliament, but I reckon that's about 10-1 odds at present. Still tempting to place an LD vote even though it'll be pointless in Liverpool just as a general way of expressing support for another referendum and against the Snooper's Charter.

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LDs apparently gaining 1000 new members in the first hour since the election announcement alone. I can see a massive surge of Moderate Tory and Centrist Labour Remainers jumping ship. 

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12 minutes ago, Brynneth said:

LDs apparently gaining 1000 new members in the first hour since the election announcement alone. I can see a massive surge of Moderate Tory and Centrist Labour Remainers jumping ship. 

I can see this too...and yet it won't make any difference to the result: an increased majority for the Tories and May gets her mandate for hard Brexit.

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Yeah, I don't like the idea that voting Conservative mandates any kind of hard-Brexit right now, like a lot of members of the party, I'm pro-Remain and campaigned to stay, the problem is, outside of that, my views are generally still more aligned to other policies than any other party right now and I would prefer to see them stay. Brexit is one of the few reasons that I don't think another coalition would be a completely terrible outcome, but I guess we'll have to see.

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I am aligned with Tory policy on a lot of things but that day-to-day shit is really unimportant this time around. Nobody ever gets the NHS, education, etc. right and it hardly matters who runs them as they will always need more money than they have, produce headlines about being in crisis, and actually to do a pretty damn good job while we continue to argue about them and take them for granted.

This is the first time in our lives that we have a hugely important issue that we can't just fix/revert in the next parliament. Brexit is too important for people to be voting on any basis other than what they want Brexit to look like.

This election will be held up as the second referendum that many of us asked for (even before the first one had happened). This is the "...and what kind of Brexit?" vote. That is how the Tories will present this after they win it in a landslide and if you vote for them then you are voting for May's hard Brexit, simple as that.

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Basically this, aye. Vote Tory for Hard Brexit, Labour for Soft Brexit (possibly, some clarification of an actual position would be nice) and LibDem for Fuck Brexit. 

Are UKIP going to be relevant anymore? Or just lose all their voters to Tory since their sole raison d'être has come and gone - save a small core of people who can't vote BNP anymore.

Edit: can't change formatting of pasted text on mobile, nice.

 

Edited by Nacey
Fixed, I guess?

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20 minutes ago, Nacey said:

This election will be held up as the second referendum that many of us asked for (even before the first one had happened). This is the "...and what kind of Brexit?" vote. That is how the Tories will present this after they win it in a landslide and if you vote for them then you are voting for May's hard Brexit, simple as that.

I disagree and am against the principle that votes should be made based on a single-issue because it just instills this cycle further and why we're even in this mess, and just puts other issues in the background more which gets nothing done, maybe I'm coloured by the SNP slightly and their constant single-issue campaigning, and lack of being able to hit any of their other goals other than running constant independence referendums, the day-to-day running of the country suffers for it. The problem comes in both cases, what happens after resolving the one issue of note? Even if it's a big one, there is still a country to run and other things to do even if you don't think those things are anywhere near as important. There needs to be a bigger spread of importance in campaigning that will never happen at this rate, if we want to have a decision made about whether we should have a hard-Brexit or not, we should stop treating GEs as flavour of the month referendums. There are other things going on and trying to be done that I'm also passionate about, but these things get constantly dwarfed by this kind of attitude.

I guess, even though I strongly wished to stay in the EU and hope we don't end up going for a hard Brexit, I don't think I could stomach the thought of a Corbyn-Labour/SNP/LD coalition mess or anything like that happening just to even potentially wind down some of the proposed deals for the EU which may or may not be affected anyway because you're talking about deals that other countries have to agree to regardless, iI feel like they probably have way more sway, if they want to severe ties completely, and we go in with a soft offer, we're not getting the soft offer, if we go in with a soft offer and they're not having any of it, we've not getting any of it. I'm not going to cast a vote that affects so many other things based on just that and I don't realistically see it making enough difference to the one thing I care about to override everything else at stake. 

But that's just my own opinion anyway, so I wouldn't take too much stake in it. :P

Lib Dems will be trying to turn it into a fuck Brexit two-way vote because, well, that worked well as a tactic for the Tories in the Scottish Elections for this exact reason, and tbh, I'm less motivated to get involved in that type of campaigning because it doesn't solve the problem and just devalues every other issues that I think are also important further and lets dumb ideas get out of hand because they never get addressed or discussed properly (and yes, I mean Tory ones as well).

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You might not like the idea that a Tory vote is a hard brexit vote, but that doesn't make that situation any less the case. You can choose to ignore this, to vote based on how much you want the road network improved or whatever else but you know as well as anyone else that your vote will be taken first and foremost as a ringing endorsement of the hard brexit strategy.

Now to your second point there, you seem to be trying to claim that unless we approach brexit negotiations with a lot of demands, we don't have any ground to give in compromise. There's an argument here, but you badly confuse two things:

The EU will not try to negotiate us from a hard to soft brexit. Those are two very different sets of discussions that will shape the next two years of talks. We can make a demanding initial offer in hard brexit negotiations (no reparations, trade concessions etc.) or we can make a demanding initial soft brexit offer (very low fees for single market access, zero access to benefits for EU migrants etc.) and either one gives us negotiating room to find something we and the EU can agree on, but the soft brexit offer is not in any way shape or form a weaker version of the hard brexit offer, it's a totally different negotiation.

I can't address too much more without any idea what you do think is at stake, but I think your idea of some kind of three way coalition is a complete nonsense of the worst sort of daily mail column kind.

As for us, we'll be campaigning for the closest ties with Europe we can achieve, as the only party in most of the UK who unabashedly support that.

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27 minutes ago, Fyria said:

I disagree and am against the principle that votes should be made based on a single-issue [...]

This is wonderfully noble and you can be against it all your want but ultimately this what is going to happe. The Tories - after they win (which they will) - are going to say that this vote gives them a mandate for hard Brexit. They are already doing it, in fact. May's speech was full of language that leads down this path.

If you are fine with your vote being used in that way then you are, of course, free to vote for them.

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People use my vote in ways I don't like and don't agree with all the time, take the SNP for example, as well as many others. I'm not going to change the way I feel about things just because other people are going to just arbitrarily decide that I'm voting for something I'm not and nothing else can possibly matter to me outside of a slight chance that one thing may or may not make a difference to terms on a thing that is already happening.

But yes, despite all of my work to try and NOT allow Brexit to happen and fight to keep us part of the EU, feel free to suddenly decide that I have to be in favour of a hard Brexit now because I care about other consequences of the election.

Edited by Fyria

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There is a (reasonably obvious?) difference between a party that you didn't vote for declaring that your vote means something that it didn't, and a party that you did vote for doing that same thing and you being aware that they are going to do this before casting the vote but still voting for them anyway.

This election is a single issue vote because it only exists for one reason: to get the Tories a mandate for hard Brexit. They already have a majority and can do everything else that they want to do without too much trouble. So you can vote for those other reasons if you want but the election wasn't called so that they can get any of those policies through.

if you legitimately don't care as much about Brexit as you do about the idea of anyone other than May running the country then I guess, yes, you should vote for the Tories. Your vote will still form part of their mandate though.

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But they also won't get any of those policies through if they're voted out? I would think that would be fairly obvious too.

If I was given the choice between no Brexit and Labour or Brexit and the Tories, I'd probably be more swayed towards the former than the later, but this is down to a few nuances in what arguments we put forward for the exact flavour of a Brexit where we still don't even have an exact definition of what hard or soft we'd even get, just because I'm not putting everything else I believe in on the line for that, sure, go ahead and judge me and assume the EU negotiations mean nothing to me because May decided to entwine her whole GE speech with trying to mandate one unknown flavour of Brexit over another, which may make no difference in reality because it's just one factor in how the exit from the EU happens.

Edited by Fyria

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I'm not going to go into a long list of things here in an election thread that's apparently all about Brexit anyway where I'm just going to be bullied by everyone for apparently believing in things I don't believe in. I've got way to much to get done today other than get into a massive flame wars with people here, but if you catch me outside of the judgemental BoT environments, I'd be happy to go through all the things I support them doing and things I hope to see happen in this country that I don't see any other party getting done.

Re: Mike. Well, that's certainly not likely to be one of them, all things considered. I'm probably the poorest here. :P

#unemployedstudent #allthedebts

Edit: Also I'm posting on my phone right now.

Edited by Fyria

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Nobody's trying to bully anyone, this is just (heated) discourse, which I'd rather have here since this is actually a more politically heterogeneous group than most of the places I hang out and I want to see some varied perspective.

Regarding Tory policy though, legit almost all the policies I can think of off the top of my head are fucking awful policies (Snooper's Charter, bedroom tax, "extreme porn" policy, drug policy, tax credit rape forms, etc, etc) and I would vote for anyone who overturned them. What do the Tories offer in your eyes?

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